Quora || 穀歌, 蘋果, 微軟, 誰會是最先倒下的IT巨頭?

問題：

Which company will fall first: Google, Apple, or Microsoft?

哪個公司會最先倒下，穀歌，蘋果還是微軟？

回答：

Simon Trevor：

Google.

穀歌

For the simple reason that they make 90% of their profits off advertising.

原因很簡單，他們目前90%的利潤來自廣告。

（注：Other Bets（其他賭注）是指那些具有「登月」意義的項目，包括Fiber（穀歌光纖）、智能家居Nest、醫療公司Calico、Verily（前Google生命科學研究部）、以及研究無人駕駛汽車等前沿項目的Google X實驗室等。）

On the other hand, Apple makes 75% off their profits off the iPhone.

Thirdly, Microsoft has their profit split between many areas.

最後是微軟，他們的利潤來源比較分散。

（注：Microsoft Dynamics是微軟公司麵向企業的商業軟件。包括客戶關係管理（CRM，Microsoft Dynamics CRM），企業資源計劃（ERP）等）

Advertising is becoming a sticky issue in today's industry. In the last few years, money from Google’s advertising has dropped 7% of their total profit of Google. People are beginning to value their privacy more and more which will continue to reduce Google to a significantly lower market cap meaning they will fall first.

廣告行業在當代的商業體係中較為被動。最近幾年，穀歌廣告業務的營收下降了7%。用戶越來越重視自己的隱私保護，而這會明顯降低穀歌的市值。所以穀歌會最先倒下。

Secondly, Apple will fall next. Apple relies on the iPhone almost as much as Google relies on ads. Apple doesn't spend as much money advertising and putting the rest of their products out there.

其次是蘋果。就像穀歌對廣告業務的嚴重依賴一樣，iphone是蘋果的支柱。對於其他產品，蘋果沒有花費那麼多時間和金錢去推廣。

Tertiary, Microsoft will fall last because they have the best distribution of money. While they are worth the least. They do not rely on any one industry.

第三是微軟。它留到最後是因為它的利潤來源分配合理，這個公司並不依賴於任何單一產業。

Ps. of these businesses are falling anytime soon.

此外，這仨短期內都沒有崩潰的趨勢。

前一陣子看微信和蘋果互懟，

去Quora上逛蕩了一圈，

發現了這麼一個有意思的問題

好事者無處不在啊

其實知乎上也有一個類似的問題

BAT哪家最難被打敗?

回答裏的傾向是百度最弱，AT難分。。。